At the 2018 Beijing International Auto Show, which will open on April 27, nearly 20 domestic new energy auto start-ups, about 50 new energy vehicles and concept cars will be exhibited, accounting for almost half of the Chinese auto enterprises' new energy exhibition vehicles. Most of these new cars are scheduled to go on sale this year and next.

About 70 domestic and foreign traditional automobile brands will exhibit more than 100 new energy quasi-production cars and concept cars, of which pure electric vehicles account for more than 70%...

If the contest between new energy auto start-ups and traditional auto companies in the past three years is understood as a war of public opinion, psychological warfare, and capital warfare, then the "outpost warfare" that is truly short-lived will be officially launched at this auto show.

From "speaking" to face-to-face "overshoot"

More than 300 new brands, over one trillion yuan investment, 5 million capacity planning... Speaking of the heat of domestic new energy vehicles, the above three figures, consumers can easily find in public reports.

Internet genes, user thinking, extreme experience, ecology, subversion, new business models... The advantages of new energy vehicle start-ups, the above terms and concepts, consumers must be familiar.

At the Beijing International Auto Show with the theme of "Defining the New Life of the Car", behind the BAT blessings Weilai, Weimar, Xiaopeng, the prosperous Baiteng at the beginning of the year, the Yangtze River and the future with the qualification of the Development and Reform Commission A number of start-up car companies, such as the Jianghuai Volkswagen, as well as Singularity, Ai Chi, Zhengdao, Zero Run, Euler, and Xinte, will launch their own quasi-production models and concept cars, competing with the new energy products of traditional car companies.

In fact, the curtain of the contest has been opened before the opening of the Beijing International Automobile. Established in 2015, Zero-Running Motors started the manufacturing base project in Jinhua, Zhejiang Province, and held a partner conference. Also established in 2015, Weimar Motors, its first model EX5 production car is being installed in the production base in Wenzhou, and is scheduled to be delivered to users in the second half of this year. At the CES show this year, the smart Internet SUV concept car was released. The factory in Nanjing has entered the stage of comprehensive construction. The first phase of the plant will be completed and mass production will begin in the first half of next year.

Traditional car companies are not idle. In view of the "double points" (enterprise fuel consumption points and new energy points) policy will be assessed in 2019 on new energy points, speeding up the introduction of new energy products is a top priority.

On April 17, SAIC-GM unveiled the plug-in hybrid Beck VELITE 6, and the world's first unveiled Buick Enspire pure electric SUV concept car. Wang Yongqing, general manager of SAIC General Motors, announced that the plug-in version is scheduled to be launched during the year, and the pure electric version will be introduced to the market. In addition to the previously listed Buick LaCrosse 30H full hybrid version, VELITE 5 extended program electric car, SAIC GM has formed a relatively rich product matrix, the power battery system development center is also officially put into operation.

On the same day, SAIC Motor Vehicle Company released the sporty mid-size sedan MG6 with a strong plug-in version. In addition, the brother brand Roewe will release the production version of the "Light Wings" smart Internet electric SUV, and plans to go public in the middle of the year. Dongfeng Nissan is based on the Bluebird platform and the wind-powered technology to create a pure electric mid-size sedan. The new generation plug-in hybrid version of BYD Tang, the Great Wall WEY brand plug-in hybrid P8, etc., will also be unveiled at the auto show.

When "squid" becomes "sardine"

At the beginning of the establishment of the new energy start-up car company, the industry authorities hope to introduce new forces, just like throwing squid into the sardines group, and promote the transformation of traditional car companies to new energy and intelligent network. This is also the intention of the National Development and Reform Commission to approve the production qualifications of 15 start-up companies. For more than two years, the sardines have indeed been motivated, but the original squid seems to have become sardines.

Wu Yingqiu, chairman of the Ryukyu Motors Group, explained that after several years of beatings, the adjustment of the start-up car companies has undergone significant changes: in the past, it was said that traditional car companies could not do this, but now they have said "awe"; the past always emphasizes the Internet. The disruptive innovation brought by genes is now more and more homogenized in terms of vehicle selection, design, new energy technologies, intelligent network solutions, business models, and even user experience design. For example, many companies claim that their pure electric vehicles can charge 80% in 30 minutes. More companies are demonstrating car network systems based on intelligent speech recognition. In fact, the suppliers behind them are Ningde era and Keda Xunfei. Similar technologies have been or will be carried on products of traditional car companies such as SAIC and Geely.

What worries the insiders is the high cost of start-ups. An investor in a car-time leasing company revealed that some of the newly-innovated energy car companies have come to the door to talk about cooperation. The same subsidies are less than 100,000 yuan, and their cost is about 15,000 higher than that of traditional car companies. yuan.

"According to the current cost and price calculation, for every pure electric mid-size sedan sold, the government subsidizes about 70,000 yuan to level the enterprise. In 2020, government subsidies will be cancelled, and what will the new energy vehicles survive?" Wang Xiaoqiu, vice president of SAIC Group Not worrying, it is expected that the purchase price of the ternary lithium battery, which accounts for the bulk of the cost of electric vehicles, will drop by a few percentage points per year. But recently, the price of cobalt in ternary materials has risen by 15%, and the overall price increase of power battery companies is already on the line.

The traditional car companies that sell millions of vehicles and sell hundreds of billions of yuan a year are all worried about the cost. The pressure of start-ups is even more rumored. After all, for capital, the beautiful PPT and the story of re-enactment will eventually be implemented in the investment yield and return cycle.

However, the slightly heavy reality still cannot reduce the enthusiasm for investment in new energy vehicles. Huang Mingming, the founding partner of Mingshi Capital, has publicly stated that in the next 10 years, the biggest structural opportunity in the automotive industry will be “travel + smart electric vehicles”, which will bring several trillion yuan of market and huge investment opportunities globally. .

Promoting the enthusiasm of new energy vehicle start-ups, as well as the strong support of local governments. Nowadays, finding new kinetic energy and realizing industrial transformation and upgrading is an important task before the local government. The new energy vehicles with wide industrial relevance, large employment, high output value and among the top ten key industries of “Made in China 2025” have become the targets of local governments.

The key to survival is consumer acceptance

"In the second half of this year, the products of a group of start-up car companies will be rolled out or delivered. If they fail to reach the previously announced level in terms of products and services, they may weaken the confidence of consumers and capitalists in the start-ups." Industry analyst Zhang Zhiyong said.

However, from the new energy vehicle mass production plan that the joint venture will release at the Beijing Auto Show, even if there are hard constraints on “double points”, facing the supporting facilities, consumer acceptance, cost, etc. of the start-up period of China's new energy vehicle market. Many uncertainties, traditional car companies, especially multinational companies are more inclined to consider the timing and intensity of new cars in terms of cost and profit.

Taking Volkswagen as an example, starting from 2019, SAIC Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen will start producing pure electric vehicles based on the existing MQB platform; by the end of 2020 or 2021, based on MEB pure electric platform and cruising range New energy vehicles up to 600 kilometers will be listed in China.

“It is a rush to introduce a pure electric vehicle that is retrofitted on the existing fuel vehicle platform and is not competitive enough. It is better to buy points and launch a more competitive model later. Some multinational brands tend to choose the latter.” The start-up car company executives told reporters that those traditional car companies that can't calculate the positive points have already locked in the points purchase target in advance. Their company has also received many batches of negotiators, even including the first phalanx of global sales. CEO of a multinational company. For new energy start-up car companies, this not only provides the opportunity to sell points in exchange for profits, but also expands the time window of collision with traditional car companies. After all, traditional car companies are relatively dominant in areas such as technology thickness, industry chain maturity, lean manufacturing and cost control, and brand power.

Of course, start-up car companies are not all outsiders from the Internet, many of them have a background in the automotive industry, and even themselves are projects invested by car companies.

Recently, SF MOTORS, a well-known smart electric vehicle start-up company established in 2016, brought the four-motor drive technology platform, intelligent driving test vehicle and two new intelligent electric SUV models SF5 and SF7 for the first time in the global public appearance. What is more interesting to the industry is the speed of product launches. In 2018, it is scheduled to open in the US market. It will be listed in the US in 2019 and enter the Chinese market in the same year.

“The integration capabilities of the smart electric vehicle industry chain determine how far new energy vehicle start-ups can go.” Zhang Zhengping, founder of SF MOTORS, said the integration includes system integration as an OEM car manufacturer and the manufacturing industry chain. Vertical integration and so on. Establishing an open industrial chain cooperation mechanism and nurturing new technologies with partners to achieve rapid iteration of technology is an important sign that start-ups are different from traditional car companies. According to reports, this initial venture invested by Xiaokang Co., Ltd. not only has factories built in Industry 4.0 in Chongqing and the United States, but also global suppliers such as Bosch, Infineon, Dürr, and Siemens, and domestic Internet companies such as Baidu. Cooperation has been carried out.

“As a start-up company, the number of Xiaopeng employees is less than 1,000, but the number of R&D personnel has exceeded 70%. In the next two years, our R&D personnel will reach 5,000.” In the view of Xiaopeng’s chairman He Xiaopeng, The highly valued and flexible mechanism of R&D is attractive to talents and is one of the magic weapons for start-up auto companies to quickly make up for shortcomings.

For start-ups, what matters more is consumer acceptance. “Before more iterations and running-in to achieve higher quality, consumers will never be the first users.” He Xiaopeng said that for this reason, Xiaopeng Automobile actively delayed the release time of the listed production cars. After all, for start-up car companies that do not have brand accumulation, the market will not provide the opportunity to make mistakes.

People's Daily (April 23, 2018, 19th edition)