Speaking of the continuous increase in alumina in recent months, it is necessary to mention the notice issued by the Ministry of Environmental Protection on March 23 this year that the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas 2017 air pollution prevention and control work plan”, which puts a few requirements on the electrolytic aluminum industry:

1. By the end of October, the company will complete the elimination of illegal “small scattered pollution” enterprises.

2. The electrolytic aluminum plant in the heating season is limited to more than 30%, based on the number of electrolytic cells that are discontinued; the alumina enterprise is limited to about 30%, based on the production line.

Last Friday, Binzhou, Shandong Province announced the “Notice on Printing and Distributing the Implementation Plan for the Staggered Production of Industrial Enterprises in Binzhou City from 2017 to 2018”, which required 13 aluminum electrolytic enterprises in Shandong Weiqiao Group to have a total production capacity of 34.7% in the heating season of 7.41 million tons. Approximately 2.57 million tons of production capacity is required to stop production. This also means that the production limit policy for the largest production area of ​​electrolytic aluminum in China is officially implemented.

Immediately afterwards, the next morning, Chinalco Shandong Company decided to adjust the non-metallurgical grade alumina to 100 yuan/ton, reaching 3,900 yuan/ton, and achieved eleven consecutive rises in three months.

Since August, alumina has embarked on the road of titanium dioxide continuous mode. Although the price increase is not large each time, it has risen even more than a dozen times, and the increase has exceeded 1,000 yuan.

What is the reason for this consecutive increase, and what are hidden behind them?

1. The bauxite is tense, causing some enterprises to reduce production and reduce production.

From the perspective of alumina raw material bauxite, Dongfang hopes that Sanmenxia Aluminum and Sanmenxia Cayman Aluminium will be crushed due to the tightness of the ore. Chinalco Zhongzhou will reduce production due to the tightness of the ore and the Jiaozuo City's early heating season. Shanxi Reclamation The aluminum industry has reduced production due to ore and natural gas problems.

Due to the sharp increase in alumina prices, alumina enterprises in Guangxi and Guizhou, which are not plagued by ore problems, are overloaded. Guangxi Huayin is on schedule for maintenance, but normal maintenance is not reduced. Some small enterprises in Shanxi and Henan are affected by ore demand. The ore is plagued by small and overloaded production. Under pressure, companies have to cut production. This has caused a vicious circle of alumina price increases.

2, heating, enterprises limit production, help increase alumina prices

In addition to the above mentioned Weiqiao limited production, Zibo City on September 26, 2017, "Zibo City 2017 comprehensive environmental protection issues, comprehensive improvement plan", clearly announced the Zibo City winter peak production industry Business list. Among them, the alumina industry is clearly located in Zhongdian Shandong Co., Ltd. in Zhangdian District. The three production lines of Sintering Process No. 1-6 and Southeast West Bayer are limited to 30% from November 15, 2017 to March 15, 2018. The impact capacity is 173,300 tons.

Alumina enterprises other than Chinalco Shandong will be discontinued during the above period, but the discontinued alumina enterprises are limited to the use of bauxite to produce alumina, alumina-free materials and alumina ball industry.

3. The downstream aluminum industry is developing well and the demand for aluminum is expanding.

On the domestic front, the economic data of the aluminum demand sector continued to decline in July and August, and the overall performance of “Golden September” was not eye-catching. The downward trend of domestic demand seemed to be inevitable. At the supply end, environmental supervision and de-capacity are still important factors affecting industrial production. The decline of data in July and August may show its negative impact, and this effect will continue in the short term.

The only bright spot is that the air-conditioning company's November production schedule has a higher year-on-year growth rate, which has increased the orders of air-conditioning foil manufacturers. However, the air-conditioning foil market accounts for a small proportion in the aluminum consumption pie chart, so the contribution is limited.

However, aluminum downstream industries play an important role in meeting the needs of the national economy for light transportation, saving wood, saving copper resources, green building materials and equipment, strategic emerging industries, and high-end manufacturing. The aluminum processing industry structure and product structure will be further optimized, and aluminum processing will surely develop rapidly as a sunrise industry.

In addition to the above reasons, the implementation plan for the peak production of autumn and winter industrial enterprises announced in Henan Province mentioned that 11 alumina enterprises limited production by more than 30%, and 4 months will affect the alumina production capacity of 1,117,500 tons. All of the above have further exacerbated the rise in alumina prices.

The rise in alumina prices will bring a series of chain reactions.

As China shuts down production capacity and shuts down production capacity, it is expected that the shortage of alumina supply may further intensify in the next few months, forcing smelters to compete for supply, leading to tight supply of alumina in China and boosting international alumina prices. . Data show that China's alumina imports in August soared by 123%. According to the Australian Bulletin's Australian FOB index, alumina prices have soared 53% in the past two months to $469.74 per tonne, the highest level since the index was launched in August 2010.

Some people in the industry believe that the shortage of alumina supply will continue in the next few months, and alumina prices still have room to rise. The market pessimists believe that the alumina turnover in September and October has already exceeded the demand for alumina in the future heating season. Some smelters have speculated that due to the decline in aluminum production, alumina supply will be surplus and weigh on prices, so they postpone purchases. In addition, prices may fall after the end of the mid-March reduction in March.