The de-capacity curtain of the electrolytic aluminum industry has been opened. In April this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries and commissions launched a special campaign to clean up and rectify illegal and illegal projects in the electrolytic aluminum industry. The special action focuses on four key contents: enterprise self-inspection (completed before May 15), local verification (completed before June 30), special spot check (completed before September 15), and urged rectification (before October 15) carry out).

Gu Fengda, an analyst at Guoxin Futures, said, “There has been a third phase, that is, a special spot check period. Taking into account the October 15 deadline for the rectification, if strictly in accordance with the policy requirements, the relevant de-capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry will enter the real In the second half of the year, the aluminum market is facing a key window of policy. However, according to the reporter's understanding, at the same time as the production capacity, the start-up work of the new capacity of the companies has not stopped. Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data showed that domestic aluminum market inventory continued to hit a record high of 1.306 million tons last week.

At present, the market's attention is mainly focused on the promotion of de-capacity policies. Liu Xiaolei, an aluminum industry analyst at Shanghai Nonferrous Network Information Technology Co., Ltd., said that domestic aluminum supply is expected to remain plentiful in 2017, and aluminum ingot inventory is expected to remain high in the first half of 2018. The surplus situation will be in the second half of 2018. There was a reversal, provided that illegal production capacity and high-cost production capacity continued to withdraw.

Some insiders also believe that although the current aluminum inventory is high, the characteristics of the aluminum price policy market are very obvious. With the inflection point of the policy, the fundamental turning point will also arrive as scheduled. In the medium and long term, the fundamentals of aluminum prices are optimistic, and the bottom of aluminum prices is expected to rise. On August 3, the Shanghai Aluminum 1709 contract surged to 14,850 yuan/ton, which was stronger than other basic metals. It shows that after the release of the short-term aluminum price drop risk, the willingness to stabilize and rebound will still exist.

At the same time, Shandong Province will limit the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, which will bring upward momentum in the later stage and will also attract funds to enter the market. On August 2, Shanghai's aluminum sales were concentrated at 14,200-14,220 yuan/ton, 150-140 yuan/ton for the month, 14200-14220 yuan/ton for Wuxi, and 14230-14250 yuan/ton for Hangzhou. The attitude of the holders’ shipments has been slightly tightened, the middlemen’s receiving of goods is relatively active, and the downstream enterprises are limited in high-temperature production and the purchase volume is limited.

As a result of the aluminum production capacity entering the substantive stage, on August 2, Chinalco's share price rose sharply. It is understood that Chinalco is China's largest alumina, primary aluminum and aluminum processing producer, and the world's second largest alumina producer and third largest primary aluminum producer. As the price of electrolytic aluminum reverses before the trend and enters the rising cycle, the supply-side reform policy is expected to make aluminum prices "go to the next level."

"Recently, the market once again rumors that Hongqiao Aluminum will cut production by 2.6 million tons by October 15. The price of aluminum has risen. The news has not been officially confirmed, but news from a foreign media, Hongqiao Aluminum will replace 2 million capacity. Tons, the production capacity will be between 6.5 million and 7 million tons. According to current news, the supply-side reform is expected to exceed production expectations and the shutdown rate is stronger than expected. It is expected that aluminum prices will rise in the second half of the year, but will not rise like black. Wang Xiaoqi, a researcher at all of China Merchants Futures Research, said in an interview with the China Times reporter.

Wang Xiaoqi said that with the continuous strengthening of the EIA, in the context of the consumption has not entered the peak season, the inventory is high, the market has expectations for the inventory inflection point, the news continues to ferment the bullish atmosphere, and the northern peak production in the fourth quarter will continue to catalyze There is a rising momentum in the short term. Before the healthy and green development of the aluminum industry is reached, the rhythm of aluminum production capacity should not stop.